Tuesday, November 2, 2010

General Election Predictions

Predicions are rounded to half a percent.

John Hickenlooper 47.5%
Tom Tancredo 45%
Dan Maes 6.5%

US Senate
Ken Buck 50%
Michael Bennet 48.5%

Walker Stapleton 51.5%
Cary Kennedy 48.5%

Scott Gessler 49.5%
Bernie Buescher 46.5%
Amanda Campbell 4%

Attorney General
John Suthers 56.5%
Stan Garnett 43.5%

Diana DeGette 59%
Mike Fallon 38.5%

Jared Polis 59%
Stephen Bailey 39%

Scott Tipton 51.5%
John Salazar 48%

Cory Gardner 48.5%
Betsey Markey 45.5%

Doug Lamborn 59%
Kevin Bradley 39.5%

Mike Coffman 59.5%
John Flerlage 40%

Ryan Frazier 49.5%
Ed Perlmutter 49%

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Maes Lieutenant Governor Short-List


Tambor Williams- Former state rep out of HD 50, Tambor brings in the establishment as she also worked in the Owens administration. Apparently Mark Hillman has been touting her to be on the ticket as well as numerous others. While Williams does bring in the party, it hurts Maes' outsider image.

Ray Martinez- Former popular Fort Collins Mayor. Martinez served in the army and police force. Martinez worked to strengthen relations with the Hispanic community and the police. Martinez shares some background with Maes while still being out of Maes’ base, something very much needed in a three way race. Martinez is not an establishment pick, but he does bring some aspect of the establishment with him as well as public service. Martinez is sure to be on Maes’ short list.
Shawn Mitchell- There has been a recent movement to get Mitchell on the ballot with Maes. Serving in the state senate, Mitchell also brings in some establishment ties, but there is no doubt he is his own man. Mitchell is popular and a good orator, but doesn’t bring in much outside Maes’ current conservative base. He would be a safe pick and a strong lieutenant governor.

Lola Spradley- The first woman Speaker of the House and the lieutenant governor pick under Marc Holtzman, Spradley brings in the old guard with proven experience and leadership. Spradley was a while ago though and has not been in the public eye since 2006. Spradley would be an interesting pick and certainly well received.

Lionel Rivera- Current Colorado Springs a Mayor and former candidate for CD-5, Rivera is very popular in his area. Like Martinez, Rivera served in the Army as a Captain. Martinez has a strong public service record in Colorado Springs being elected to the city council, being the first Hispanic Vice Mayor and now current Mayor. Colorado Springs is mostly under Maes’ belt, but Rivera would add to the ticket, not as much as Martinez though.

John Elway- This is a wild card. Elway would bring much needed money into the ticket and as a businessman, adds to Maes’ resume. Elway isn’t new to politics, though he hasn’t run for office (though often touted as a potential candidate). Elway is unlikely to be on Maes’ short list, but he would surely stir things up in the race.

While there are many other possible picks, we feel these are, or at least should be, on Maes' short list.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Primary Predictions

Based off of recent polls and voter group breakdown, we have come up with our primary predictions for tonight.

Ken Buck 53%
Jane Norton 47%
Ken Buck has the momentum on his side with energized tea party supporters behind him and the fact that El Paso and Weld County especially have polls open today which will bring in huge numbers for Ken.

Dan Maes 52%
Scott McInnis 48%
A lot of voters are expected to leave this one blank which increases Dan Maes' chances. Maes has the energy and momentum on his side as well as a strong lead in the female vote, which is more likely to vote in the primaries.

Michael Bennet 51%
Andrew Romanoff 49%
This is one of the hardest races to predict. You've all seen the recent polls with both Romanoff and Bennet leading. PPP shows Bennet leading with older and younger voters as well as woman.

Ryan Frazier 59%
Lang Sias 41%
Frazier has been in the race much longer than Sias, has a war chest and yard signs all over the 7th. Sias did bring in the big guns with McCain, but that isn't going to do too much for him. Sias' negative campaign may have turned some voters off from Frazier, but not on to him.

Bob McConnell 47%
Scott Tipton 53%
McConnell is sure to make some noise tonight, but in the end, we think voters will choose the more electable candidate, Scott Tipton. Palin's backing of McConnell proved he was tea party material, but was it enough to push him over the fence?

Stephen Bailey 60%
Bob Brancato 40%
After Brancato's exit before the ballot came out, then re-entrance, the campaign looked like a wreck. Bailey has been the favorite in the race and will probably stay that way tonight.

JJ Ament 56%
Walker Stapleton 44%
About a third of Colorado voters have been undecided on this race which worked into Ament's favor after recently attacking Stapleton for not showing up to recent events and forums. Ament dropped in momentum after the convention, but as picked it back up. Stapleton has had media buys, but it just might not be enough for these voters who make up their minds at the very end.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Andrew Romanoff for US Senate (Democratic Primary)

We encourage all democrats to cast their vote for Andrew Romanoff. Andrew has shown proven, strong leadership while Speaker of the House. He brought the democrats to power in Colorado when nobody thought it was possible and worked with Governor Owens and republicans countless times. In 2010, integrity matters, accountability is an asset and Andrew Romanoff is no doubt the democrat you can trust in the race for US Senate.

Romanoff is not controlled by Washington like Michael Bennet. It is clear that Bennet is a puppet of the Obama administration. When casting a vote for a gun bill, Bennet looked to Chuck Schumer and Mark Udall for approval to vote yes only because they had enough votes for the democrats to block the measure. Romanoff is his own person, caring for the people of Colorado.

We don’t agree with Romanoff on a lot of issues, but we do respect him. He is open minded and puts the voters of Colorado as the first and only priority when voting. Romanoff is qualified, skilled and capable for the Senate seat, much more than Michael Bennet. Romanoff is clearly the greatest fear for Republicans out of the two democrats. Romanoff has moved into first, passing out Michael Bennet who has outspent and outraised him by a wide margin.

In 2010, we’re hearing a lot about grassroots movements on the Republican side, but Romanoff’s campaign has been a grassroots movement on the Democratic side. There would be no candidate that could energize the Democratic Party to fight hard in 2010 than Andrew Romanoff. Therefore, we encourage all democrats to cast their vote for Andrew Romanoff because you can look him in the eye and know he’ll tell you what he feels is right and what he believes in, not what special interests or other politicians believe in.

Monday, July 26, 2010

9-12, Tea Party Groups Won't Support Tancredo, Ask Him To Reconsider

Lu Busse, Chair of the 9-12 Project Colorado Coalition, sent out an open letter to Tom Tancredo, urging him to reconsider his ultimatum of joining the gubernatorial race as a 3rd party candidate and thus assuring defeat for Republicans. If Tancredo wants a real shot at this, he'd need 9-12 and Tea Party groups behind him as a base, and it's clear that not even these conservative/libertarian groups want him in the Governor's race.

Dear Congressman Tancredo:

Many Coloradans and liberty movement individuals respect you for your courage and honorable service to this state. But, we ask what really has changed, and how your High Noon ultimatum issued July 22nd reflects the principles and values you have long stood for? This ultimatum seems out of character and completely contradicts the sage advice you offered us in an open letter on December 21, 2009 and reiterated again passionately at a joint 9-12 Project/Tea Party event on January 16, 2010.

We would like to remind you of this particular section of your open letter, which continues to resonate with us even today:

Yes, over the last decade, many individuals left the Republican Party because George Bush led the national party to abandon its principles and support several big government programs. But leaving the party is not the answer. Fighting for your principles and reshaping the party is the answer.

Throughout our nation's history, third parties have never succeeded in taking power and running the government. They have sometimes succeeded in pushing a major party in a new direction, but just as often, they succeeded only in electing the more liberal candidate after many conservatives waste their votes on a third party candidate. Remember 1992? Ross Perot never had a chance to be president, but he did help elect Bill Clinton.

Here in Colorado we have an uphill road in 2010, but the good news is we have the opportunity for a broad resurgent victory if we work together. - Tom Tancredo Over 800,000 Coloradans or 33% of likely voters, including almost 550,000 or 64% of likely Republican voters in our state, have joined the "Tea Party* movement in the past 17 months. We clearly demonstrated at the precinct causes and state assembly a significant portion of the 9-12 Project, Tea Party and other pro-liberty grassroots individuals have worked tirelessly for more than a year championing our principles, becoming engaged and informed, learning the political process, vetting candidates at all levels, and also reshaping the Colorado Republican Party as you advised. We trusted and listened to you among others; but, now you do not trust the Republican voters of Colorado to thoughtfully and logically evaluate the choices before us. You want to impose your personal choice and will over the will of the people. You are subverting the process and our will. This is the opposite of the liberty movement and what we are about.

Since your ultimatum, several liberty groups have queried their members and found about 2/3 (66% of 754 responses - over 250 more than used in Rasmussen polls for Colorado) of the responders to this non-scientific internal survey would not vote for you in the Governor's race. This does not foretell a conservative victory, but rather an impending disaster, assuring victory for Mayor Hickenlooper and the liberal agenda in Colorado for at least four more years. Congressman Tancredo, together our groups strongly urge you to reconsider, withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the Governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process - in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.

Pledging our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor to Colorado and our Constitutional Republic, the United States of America -

9-12 Pikes Peak Patriots

9-12 Project Liberty Circle

Broomfield 9-12 Project

Cherry Creek District 9-12 Project

Colorado 9-12 Project (Including Denver metro area, Front Range communities & Eastern I-70 corridor)Elbert County Tea Party

Four Corners 9-12 Project/TEA Party Patriots (Cortez)Four Corners Liberty Restoration Group (including Bayfield & Durango 9-12 Project/Tea Party)Greeley 9-12 Project

Longmont 9-12/Tea Party

R Block Party

South Denver 9-12 Project

The 9-12 Project Colorado Coalition

The912Project.us Network - Colorado Chapter

The Constitutionalist Today Editorial Board

Tri-County 9-12 Project (Delta/Montrose/Ouray)Two Rivers 9-12 Project

Vail Valley 9-12 Project

We Will Not Fall - Fort Collins 9-12 Project

Western Slope Conservative Alliance

Windsor 9-12 Project


Sunday, July 25, 2010

Ryan Frazier For Congress

Ryan Frazier is the clear conservative choice in CD-7. Ryan balances strong qualities and experience of powerful public speaking, a fiscally common sense conservative record, naval background and having been elected on the city council at-large in Aurora to make him the most electable conservative to face Ed Perlmutter. There is no one more passionate in the republican field for Congress than Ryan Frazier. Ryan has traveled the state and the district talking to people who know and feel the problems of a burdening government, of high taxes and of limited freedoms and liberties. Ryan knows Colorado, he knows what must be done in Congress.

Ryan not only focuses on the short term problems, like our current economic situation, but also the extended long term problems that are driving our nation into unbelievable debt that can and will cripple our nation if we do not act now like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Ryan knows we have to work with every aspect of the problem to create a sensible solution. As life expectancy rises, it is ridiculous to push forward a plan to lower the retirement age, its common sense ideas like this that makes Ryan Frazier the right guy to send to Washington. Ryan knows it won’t be easy, but he knows it must be done. We must cut our budget, we must cut government programs, we must pay off our debt and close the deficit completely and we must pass a balanced budget because he knows and believes that we owe it to our children for a better America.

Ryan is a very unique candidate. It is not often you get a candidate with such a rich, diverse background who is a conservative and also has the funds and election knowledge and history to take on a liberal democrat with a large war chest. 2010 will be the Republican’s best shot to win CD-7 for the next decade and Ryan Frazier the best candidate that could possibility go up against Ed Perlmutter and the best man to do the job in Congress.

We need accountability, we need integrity, we need experience and we need common sense conservative values. That is what Ryan Frazier brings to the table. I encourage all CD-7 Republicans to cast their ballots for Ryan Frazier.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

The Tancredo Factor

Tom Tancredo recently announced his intentions to run for Governor on a third party ticket.

Tancredo called for Dan Maes and Scott McInnis to both announce if they win the primary, they will drop out so the GOP executive board can pick a replacement. 2 years of grassroots, tea party, 912, and activists movements for nothing then.

Tancredo would definitely be a threat to Republican's chances of winning the Governor's race. However, if he did run, history would remember Tancredo screwed the GOP's chances, not Maes' clerical error or McInnis' plagiarism scandal. While Tancredo would have some momentum at the beginning of his campaign and shortly after the primary, we predict the campaign would sink a few weeks out to the extent that Tancredo wouldn't even be able to win a single county.

Tancredo is mostly a single issue, anti-immigration type of guy. This represents a small minority in the GOP. There is a strong difference between caring about the illegal immigration and only caring about the illegal immigration problem. While some would suggest that McInnis would be a stronger pick for Republicans in this scenario, we see the exact opposite. Since McInnis has been viewed to be more moderate than Tancredo, a larger portion of the far right would break off to Tancredo, while if Maes was the nominee, he would keep much more of the party base and there is no chance Tancredo would move to the middle to win this.

While Tancredo says the choice is in the hands of Dan Maes and Scott McInnis, we all know that neither are going to drop out easily this far in, and surely both would not drop out, therefore if Tancredo is serious this time, he will run, and he will lose.