Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Election Update

UP Josh Penry* (5-1) Traveling the state and moving fast. He's gaining lots of supporters in the party as well as most of the state republican legislators. He may not be the best candidate to take on Ritter, but he is the favorite at the moment in the GOP from his momentum. If he can turn out the youth and get them to vote and be elected delegates he can win the nomination.

UP Scott McInnis* (5-1) After months of fumbling mess-ups, violations, ect...McInnis is on the move. Showing strong results in the latest polls for the GOP primary. His message is strong too...he's in it for Colorado. Remember when Beauprez didn't know why he was even running for Governor, can't have that happen again. McInnis has strong roots with the "experienced" republicans in the party. As long as Wadhams doesn't go full force against McInnis he could easily win this if the cards are played right.

Dan Maes* (12-1) For being a total unknown a few months ago, Maes now has over 40% ID in the party. The probably is half of the 40% don't know enough to make up their minds about him. He comes in as a new type of candidate. Businessman (like McInnis) yet not a career politician. He too gets support in the youth of the party and along the front range. If he is able to take the suburbs he has a serious shot in this race.

OUT Tom Tancredo...Good-bye Tanc, you're removed from our Election Odds line.

UP Ken Buck* (7-1) Made double the money as Frazier. He first has to increase his online activity, and show that he's been out there, but he's getting there. Buck has the ability to excite the Tancredo part of the base without totally alienating everyone else like Tancredo would do. His strong roots in the north need to spread out first though. He'll have to be able to take most the Denver suburbs from Frazier to win this.

DOWN Ryan Frazier* (10-1) Poor fundraising showings in the first quarter could hurt him. Frazier has to be able to match funds raised by Buck to compete. He has the energy to win, but he needs the money to do so. If he can use his military background and the ability to say he was elected by a huge population to win the front rage and Denver area as well as the surrounding suburbs he could win and beat Bennet.

DOWN Cleve Tidwell* (18-1) Made some noise at the beginning but has gone more quiet. He has to prove and show us that he's out there and active. He'll have the personal funds to compete, but he needs to connect with voters and get a clear message to win. Using military background and being raised in rural America he could win the south, rural Colorado and parts of the front range giving him a shot at the nom. He needs a message and to stick to it first.

Tom Wiens* (25-1) We're all still waiting on Wiens. Will he even get enough for double digits or will he be able to swoop Colorado and create strong grassroots organization? Time will tell, until then we keep an eye on him.

UP Bob Beauprez (30-1) Moving up because he can't move down. Beauprez is making noise. Will he be able to make the greatest comeback in Colorado history or completely end his political career? All beats on in his race for the Senate. Beauprez will be fighting with Buck for votes giving Frazier and Tidwell a chance to rise. Beauprez can raise the money, but can he connect with voters and prove he's the one we need in the Senate? If he can he wins, if not it's 2006 all over again.

Luke Korkowski* (45-1) You could say he's rising as Luke is starting to get out there building ID and support, however some of the stuff he posts on his campaign site is obvious proof this guy isn't a real competitor. He won't be as successful as turning from a nobody to somebody like Maes.

UP Walker Stapleton* (4-1) Stapleton did an amazing job raising funds so far. Ousting current Treasurer Kennedy...remember this seat is about money. Stapleton needs to become more exciting, get his name out there and say what he's all about to win. If he can tackle those things he will be the next Treasuer.

JJ Ament* (6-1) If he is able to raise the same amount of money as his opponent Ament can win. He's more exciting and a better speaker. He does a better job at connecting with the voters but none of that matters if you have zero dollars in the bank. We'll see come next quarter when everyone comes out with fundraising results.

OUT Muh. Ali Hasan...If he wants in he must jump now, but it would be very hard for him to beat out Stapleton's money even with his charisma.

Secretary of State
DOWN Scott Gessler* (9-1) Can't raise squat and spending more then he makes...come on people is this what you want as a candidate for state-wide office?

Nancy Doty (9-1) Definitely should be looking much closer at this race now that Gessler has proved himself to be a campaigning fool

UP Cory Gardner* (4-1) Has shown he's the favorite. He can raise money and can spend it well unlike his opponents. Cory is pretty well known in the district already and should be a serious threat to Markey should he get the nom. The GOP leadership is already unoffically supporting him knowning he's probably their best bet in 2010.

DOWN Diggs Brown (9-1) Though has the greatest potential, Diggs needs to get back here and start campaigning right away or it's a no go. His campaign staff is spending much more then they make even though they're making quiet a bit of money for an unannounced candidate. Paying yourself should not be the top priority of your campaign spending

DOWN Tom Lucero* (12-1) Raising virtually nothing and not getting enuthastic support. Though he was first to get in this race, he definetly isn't in front. Lucero needs to turn things around now or he won't even make it to the priamry.

Steve Johnson (15-1) A moderate, but still could have a chance. Now that this crowded field isn't looking so hard to win in, Johnson should be taking a look at this.

DOWN John Flerlage* (5-1) More likely to win general then Canter, but not by much. John can't raise money and he needs it to beat Coffman. Military background helps, but if he can't get the money there's no way he's taking this conservative district.

DOWN MORE David Canter* (8-1) Hasn't proven himself. Hasn't raised money, doesn't appeal to voters as well as Flerlage. He won't be able to win unless he does something or raises something big and fast.

Ed Tauer (7-1) Has ID and campaign experience to win the primary. But first will the GOP even have enough money to spare for this race, second does he really think he can win against Perlmutter. He's probably the best possible candidate, but he'd need some good funding to win.

DOWN John Lerew (10-1) Popular with the local GOP. Lerew did an amazing job winning the primary last year without even trying or being announced. He does have the image of a solid candidate, but doesn't have the money to get there.

DOWN Troy Eid (17-1) Will the 7th just see his ambitions? Eid just wants office, doesn't matter what and that won't play well. Perlmutter will also nail him for that espescially if he even shows an inch of being a threat.

UP Jim Lakey (18-1) Has some core support and ID. He's known by radio listeners which would be needed to beat Perlmutter. If GOP can't fund this race at least Lakey wouldn't be totally unknown. But could he beat the candidates above in a primary? With enough support...

UP Brian Campbell* (35-1) Though he has no money and doesn't know how to campaign, Brian is trying to get noticed. Being active in Tea Parties and talking to republicans. He wants it, but he won't ever be able to get it without hard core donors and a bunch of excited volunteers. Get some campaign experience then come again.

*Candidate has announced run for office

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