Thursday, May 14, 2009

Election Odds Update

If you haven't noticed already, there is an election odds section on the left side of this blog. It is meant to show the candidates running, there current chances and a quick reason why. This isn't based off of polls, scientific research or anything like that. Here is more depth of why the candidates are ranked in this order and with their current odds.

Governor
Josh Penry (6-1) Starting to make good ID for himself. Josh Penry has been ranked as the worst and best Rep for 2010. He's convinced some democrats to go the with GOP on some issues like the death penelty that actually made the minority win. However Penry is very unpopular outside of the GOP and isn't as warming as some other candidates. He could win a primary, but it would be a bitter battle with McInnis and the party leadership who would take sides.

Scott McInnis (7-1) Continues to shoot himself in the foot. McInnis recently was up 7% against Ritter in a poll, since then he has made himself less popular. McInnis supports the Pinon Canyon Expansion which would increase a military base. However, this is agrued to be abusive to eminent domain rights and unpopular with those who would have to lose land. McInnis could win the primary if he starts campaigning for the things everyone likes, over the issues only a minority of people support.

Dan Maes* (15-1) Starting to get around to raise ID, but isn't there yet. Maes could be a wild card in 2010. He either won't even make it into the primary, or he could end up winning the nom. Maes is starting to go around to party leaders and events to gain support with the active GOP. He took first place in the May Denver County Straw Poll. Maes does not however have any prior campaign experience since he has never run for office. Keep an eye on this one.


Tom Wiens (25-1) This hopeful is starting to get some ID in the party, but not enough to win. Tom Wien will probably have a lot of trouble taking down Penry and McInnis. He has some support and isn't disliked, however he isn't that popular. Wiens has experience and a track record to prove it, but he needs to start getting more active in the GOP or he'll be too far behind the front runners to make up ground in 2010.

Tom Tancredo (35-1) Immigration doesn't seem like the top issue of 2010. Tancredo would have had a shot if the big issue of Colorado was immigration next year. Tancredo has fought hard against it and would be a front runner if Colorado cared. However, Colorado cares a lot more about fixing this economy first. He was popular in the 6th and would have a core base of supporters if he runs.


Senate
Ryan Frazier* (6-1) He's becoming the favorite in the primary. Frazier is young, african-american and served in the military. He's what some would call a "perfect candidate" for the general election. Frazier however is moderate on social issues which will hurt in the primary. You can't win the election without winning the primary and flipping on the issues will hurt him too. Frazier has already started gaining support from some of the business community and has one almost all the Straw Polls. Frazier will start in the lead.

Cleve Tidwell* (10-1) Has the money, but needs to raise ID. Most people don't know Tidwell. He is a businessman from Denver and will likely pick up support from that group of people. If Tidwell can win the backing of the business community he could well win the primary and general because Colorado will want a Senator who has experience in business. Tidwell has a long way to go though before he will be fighting with Frazier for the lead.

Ken Buck* (17-1) His campaign had a bad start and isn't getting better. Buck had a horrible campaign kick-off. He made a website before he announced taking away the "surprise". Buck has the law on his side though and is experienced in politics. However, to Frazier he looks old and that may hurt or help him. Colorado wants experience, but fresh ideas as well. If Buck can't start turning around the campaign though he probably won't make it to the primary.

Bob Beauprez (20-1) Has ID, but is Colorado done with Bob? Bob Beauprez lost by double-digits to Ritter in 2006. He is known best as "Both-Ways-Bob" has he fought in a nasty Gubernatorial race. Colorado does know who Beauprez is and he has money, enough to take on Bennet. If he can get the support and momentum he will be a front runner.

Dan Caplis (25-1) Conservatives like him, but he wouldn't make it in the general. Caplis is a good speaker, but isn't a politician. He would have some support for the primary, but he'd get creamed in the general. Caplis is too conservative for the state. If he decided to run, he'd need to get a good volunteer team to be able to compete. If he runs he too will be a wild card for the primary.

Treasurer
Walker Stapleton* (5-1) Will have the money and is starting to raise some ID. Stapleton recently appeared on fox talking about the economy which is a good start for a candidate wanted to be Treasurer. However, he hasn't done anything or gone to many events which hurts a candidate in a primary. Stapleton needs to get out there or else he'll be in the back for this race.

Muh. Ali Hasan (6-1) Has some campaigning experience now, but isn't the "wow" candidate. Hasan lost a race for the Colorado House in the Vail area last year. He is young, Muslim and a Republican which is rarely seen in a candidate. Hasan has lots of money though which will help him, but money didn't work last time. He needs to get a volunteer team organized to win the primary however, Hasan shows up to many Republican events and has ID.

JJ Ament (8-1) He'll have to take out Stapleton to get the nom. Ament is like Stapleton, expect not as grand. Ament is a banker and Stapleton is a businessman. However bankers and that popular this year and it will hurt him next year if we will have a bad economy. Ament has been credited for giving good speeches which helps in a primary when a candidate is at a large event. If he can take out Stapleton he could win the primary.

Secretary of State
Scott Gessler* (8-1) Has experience at law, but shows large favor to GOP which will hurt in the general. He is popular in the GOP, but won't make it in the general. He can't say he's unbiased when he's a republican lawyer. If he can show he's committed he can win.

Nancy Doty (10-1) County Clerk wouldn't be able to beat Buescher either. Doty doesn't have great ID and lost the Straw Poll to Gessler. She has credibility though which would help in the general, but Gessler is a more popular Republican. She could still win the primary.

CD-4
Cory Gardner* (7-1) Isn't leading this race like expected. Gardner hasn't done anything to place himself above this soon to be crowded primary. He has supports, but the 4th doesn't say he's their "for sure guy". Gardner was leading in the primary's poll, but not by much. He'll have to raise a whole lot of money to win the primary and beat Markey.

Tom Lucero* (8-1) Needs to raise a lot more money to be competitive. Lucero did a rather poor job or raising funds for the first quarter. This race will cost a lot because Markey will have money in the bank in 2010. Lucero can press hard on education, but the 4th cares more about agriculture. Lucero needs to get more active to win (although he is more active then Gardner).

Diggs Brown (8-1) Starting to raise support and money. Brown is very popular for the people that know him. The Draft Diggs team has raised over $30,000 this first quarter which is good for a candidate that isn't even running yet. Brown was very popular in Ft. Collins and has military experience that makes him even more likable. He would fare better against Markey over Lucero and maybe even Gardner. He just might be able to flip this house seat.

Steve Johnson (12-1) Too moderate to win a primary right now. Johnson is still popular in his area and would do very well against Markey. If he could get the money he'd at least make the 4th a very close race. Johnson however isn't as popular for Republicans as Gardner or Diggs and needs enthusiastic supporters to win. Keep an eye on Johnson because if he wins the primary, he too could win the general.

7 comments:

  1. Colorado Political NewsMay 14, 2009 at 5:38 PM

    If anyone feels there should be a name added to this list please feel free to state their name and why they should be included in "Election Odds"

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  2. Dan Maes will be a force to be reckoned with. He is starting to generate tremendous suppport at the grassroots level and is canvassing the entire state. He's got my vote! "Yeas For Maes"

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  3. Dan Maes may be a relatively unknown, but he is definitely getting traction! Many in the party are tired of the same 'ol career politicians, and Dan is is the new face we've been looking for in leadership!

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  4. Met Tom Lucero and was very impressed. Seems to be very hard working and dedicated. He seems to be in it for the right reasons.

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  5. I think Maes could actually have a chance now. Lucero can win if he has the funds and can keep off Brown. Senate race....I have no clue. Frazier is the clear favorite right now, but that could change although I don't expect Buck winning this one. Maybe Tidwell

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  6. I think Dan Maes is the best canidate for governor. he will bring fresh ideas and unite the people for the change we need to see in Colorado. He is new but his plans are solid and gaining traction in the young people. Youth support is what the Republicans need. He's got it!

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  7. Dan Maes is exactly the candidate Colorado needs! We do not need another politician in the Governor's office. He will do what is right and not what is "politically correct". We need a solid run government, not a government that has run out of control. "government of the people, by the people, for the people" - Abraham Linclon

    Go Dan!

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